The Role of The Valedictory Statement

I have never seen the point of valedictory speeches in Parliament, they belong like maiden speeches really - consigned to the time wasting scrap heap. It is not like Parliament doesn't have enough to sit through.

Unless you have served say five terms or more in a row in Parliament I am firmly of the opinion you shouldn't have one. It should be earned with time served not granted as of right.

And once you have had a valedictory it seems silly to allow you to come back to Parliament.

It was good today however to hear Sir Roger Douglas' speech. The speech was a fitting end to his Unfinished Business. Sir Roger can take something from his time in politics that not many people can boast, he has outlived almost every other politician he mentioned in his Valedictory. Kirk, Muldoon, De Cleene and Lange.



Watching it I couldn't help but wonder whether Sir Roger really got back into Parliament just for three more years to give this 20 minute speech - the one he didn't give the first time around after he was handed the arse card. I assumed he gave one the first time he left and there was general confusion on twitter if he had. It turned out he had not. In many ways he was playing it like he never left the first time for in 20 minutes Sir Roger didn't even give ACT or his past three years in Parliament even a second thought. He didn't thank his current staff or colleagues, just the old ones.

Sir Roger is still a confusing creature right to the end by those who are fans but not sycophants. His valedictory speech was the most eloquent I have heard him deliver, it was funny and self-deprecating in parts, passionate in others and warm in most. He looked very at ease. It was a speech that I imagine he could have and maybe did write all those years ago before I first met him when he was full of enthusiasm for the promise of ACT.

The speech was not one that associated at all with his last three years in Parliament. It went back to the glory days of old. In many ways that is where Sir Roger has been stuck.

I hope that history remembers Sir Roger kindly as I do for the years of his reign as Minister of Finance of 1984-88. And remembers less of his last three years in Parliament and role in ACT. His speech reflected that. Sir Roger is a politician of the past. Pre-MMP. There is nothing wrong with that and it is not a criticism. It is just the way things are and who he is and perhaps always has been. Sir Roger as Finance Minister enjoyed a period of absolute reign in 1984-88 that no politician may ever have the opportunity again. They were indeed glory days, incapable of even the slightest of re-invention.

Just as basketball great Michael Jordan ended his great NBA career on a high with the Chicago Bulls in that epic match with that last epic unforgettable shot before switching to the Washington Wizards whereby he became a frustrated spectator often critical of his peers, so too Sir Roger should have ended his time in Parliament when he was done with another team in red.

No-vote Vote For Labour!

Our "friends" over at The Stranded are advertising Labour's latest campaign fundraising brainfart - The No Dinner Dinner.

This was the Party that sold illegal Stop signs remember.

And the Party that wants New Zealanders to pay for services they do not actually consume so those who don't pay can benefit. So I guess it is fitting they invite you to pay for food you can't actually eat.

Only the Labour Party really could have come up with this. I'd never heard of something so creatively stupid and so googled it and sure enough it's a silly thing people do when they wish to raise money for the poor. Shades of Mike Hutcheson perhaps?



Beg for donations for food that doesn't exist made up using the naming rights of other MP's from Opposition Parties. Offer a no-raffle raffle.

How about people cast a no-vote vote for Labour at the same time?

Will Parekura Horomia take this all too literally, order one of everything and then get the pip when he wonders where the hell all the food is? I could see it happening. Best someone wake him up to inform him.

And will Charles Chauvel get the pip completely when he finds out someone has named the Gobstoppers after him?

Will Paula Bennett receive an apology for the blatant sexism showed towards her?

Will Chris Carter pack a tanty from Kabul when he's been deemed bitter?

Labour again lack the good manners to sell non-existent alcohol with their non-existent food in anything but the highest priced set menu.

I now have to resist from buying one of these non-items so I can have a laugh listening and reviewing for everyone just how bad the guest speaker was.

If the speaker does in fact exist.

Surely if they want innovative campaign ideas, flogging a pin up calendar of Stuart Nash, Damien O'Connor and Iain Lees-Galloway around the good women of Hawkes Bay, West Coast and Palmerston North may have been a better idea.

Well Done Palmerston North

For selling out your stadium of 14,000 for the epic clash between two rugby giants, Georgia v Romania.

I mean people paid money to watch this match? Isn't there a local High School match on this afternoon they could have watched instead?

I don't think there is more proof evident that Palmerston North may just be the dullest place in New Zealand to live.

The RWC Organisers matched game to stadium perfectly.

In Palmerston North's honour I give them this Youtube.

Mummy Can I Have a Panda?

From the "I so want one" corner

Don't let the kids watch television when they are on.

#bryceedwardsconspiracy Takes Over John Campbell

The problem with all conspiracy theories is that some of them are actually true. I challenge you to pick the ones below that are.

Today on twitter there was an attempt to trend #bryceedwardsconspiracy.

This after leading blogger and National Party operative David Farrar announced a new political grouping that I will never be a part of because it involves being named with pinkos - the Vast Right Wing and non-Labour Left Wing Conspiracy (VRWNLLWC). It is already rumoured that David has been kicked out of the Group for not only copying Whaleoil's quote of the day from the previous day, but sitting so long on the fence that he's got jock rash in the shape of Bill English's fist.

I wish to add perhaps the greatest conspiracy out there on to the woodpile. The Bucket List Conspiracy.



The Bucket List Conspiracy

The latest conspiracy circulating from TV3's John Campbell is that today's attempt by John Banks and Don Brash to ignite a war between themselves on the decriminalisation of marijuana is a cunning plan to show that John Banks is a principled and electable voice for Epsom.

The plan went something like this, something Whaleoil has loosely termed "stealing underpants". The South Park born strategy that is currently being used by operatives in the Labour Party. Remember Whaleoil is part of the team of crack secret operatives who indeed installed Don Brash as Leader of the ACT Party in what is now loosely called the Blind Lusk Conspiracy.



Stealing Underpants In Bucket List Conspiracy

1. Use easy media such as Duncan Garner, his little office bitch Patrick Gower and Campbell Live as a conduit to engage in an aggressive yet entirely fictitious war of words between the Party Leader and the very conservative candidate for Epsom. Mr Banks can remind everyone over and over again how conservative he is and to "watch this space" and Dr Brash can remind Mr Banks he has been a good friend of his for 30 years. Knowing how threatening that claim was last time.

2.????

3. Win Epsom and get Dr Brash in on the list

Or

It could have all just been a complete accidental thermonuclear clusterfuck.

Win For The ACT Youth

Today Don Brash announced that he is prepared to look at the decriminalisation of cannabis. I did have an initial thought that it was a cunning plan by him to make drugs uncool and for kids to stop using them by giving his support. Rather like Peter Dunne did with planking in New Zealand.

Contrary to media reports once reading his speech I saw that this doesn't mean it is suddenly ACT party policy or that Brash (and one assumes John Banks) necessarily supports the decriminalisation but for younger more liberal members of the Party it is an excellent win against the Old Brigade and the stereotype that Grandpa's have taken over the Party.

I imagine the phones will be running hot Monday morning at the ACT Epsom office with irate oldies, but equally I suspect ACT on Campus will have more interest than ever. Philosophical differences in the Party will be shown no better than Brash's perceived softening on drugs today.

The New Zealand Police puts out this information on drugs on their website including punishment for possession and supply.

Listed in Class C drugs are Cannabis Seed, Cannabis Plant, Codeine Seed, Cannabis Plant, Codeine. There is an excellent argument to legalise the lot. And then cut into some of the Class A and B drugs as well. I would take shrooms, coke, Acid, E and Amphetamines off there as well. My personal view is that I don't care what other people put into their own bodies and should be responsible enough past the age of 18 to make their own decisions and take their own risks with their bodies based on using their own intellect to size up the risk. The war on drugs in other words is a complete failure.

There is of course a difference between decriminalisation and legalisation. Legalisation is where the substance would be perfectly legal. Decriminalisation means the substance would still be illegal but the penalties would be reduced and/or Police would turn a blind eye to such. I see no point in going to all the debate just with the focus on decriminalisation.

In for a penny in for a pound and legalising means regulating, profiting and revenue mechanisms for government where none such can exist now. That's right, regulate the product, commercialise it for sale without all the gang additives in it right now and tax it.

ACT is the first mainstream Party to have its leader seriously promote such a radical look at changing drug laws. I say this is an important first step to have mainstream people fronting the debate. Have a look at New Zealand's last Leader of such thought:



Then there is the much victimised but very curiously weird Dakta Green



To a picture of a corporate Brash, former Banker



The problem with Brash fronting the call for decriminalisation or legalisation from the ACT Party is pretty simple to see. Brash has never smoked weed himself and I would imagine other than having morphine in hospital or codeine for a headache, wouldn't have touched anything else on the banned list either. This gives him a credibility issue in terms of capturing the minds of users of drugs so they don't laugh it all off as being desperate and cynical. Which is why I had another facepalm this morning when I read he had made it an issue.

And while ACT can have as many scholastic arguments and debates that this is a rights or health issue spouting philosophers and engendering calls as to identify conservatism and liberalism labels, it is not.

To successfully counter all the negative Nandor style stereotyping that drug use harms your kids and turns them into skateboard riding, dreadlocked, low achieving smelly hippies, ACT must come up with a credible Spokesperson who can rattle out all the rights arguments and doesn't mind admitting, hell yeah they've smoked cannabis, not just once but whenever they wish, they also wear a suit, have University degrees and work in a corporate environment on a decent six figure salary. They are however a recreational drug user when they wish on a Friday or Saturday night or holidays, member of the professional classes on a Monday to Friday. A user not an abuser or a statistic. Like most recreational drug users are, not addicts or P freaks.

This is the only way to capture middle New Zealand or indeed the National Party to ever support this call. The Mums and Dads who have been scared off by the Herald Editor into thinking if their kids take drugs that child's life will be over, they won't achieve anything and will all end up P addicts. The Mums and Dads who want their nice white, middle class children to turn out anything but like Nandor and Dakta.

So which of these two young lads are going to be brave enough to step up from the safe environment of a University campus, throw away their squeaky clean reputations and front if they indeed partake in such recreational use?



The 2nd best speaker in Australasia and 15th best speaker in the World (however the hell that was measured) barely out of University who can talk the hind leg off a donkey? Probably now number 7 on the ACT list.



Or the chain smoking, Kidsline counsellor, recently published author now fighting two goody-two shoes Head Girl types in Auckland Central? Probably now number 5 on the ACT list with a decent chance of being elected.

Or are both just too preppy and so does ACT have to turn to its ACT on Campus Leader to find a bad boy to promote this issue nationally and in turn shunt him around 20 places higher on the List?



Or is it true that ACT's young people are just too geeky, serious and clean-living to even enjoy the rights and freedoms they are fighting for?

From Hong Kong To Tamaki With Bemusement

What the fuck?

Happy birthday indeed.

From Astoria to Tamaki With Love

Today's "no politics during the RWC" comes courtesy of Don Brash at Astoria as told by a curious Tom Fitzsimons from an even more curious piece.

It is important to put the piece into some context. I have therefore penned a poem to the most important vote that Dr Brash seems hell-bent on earning this election......Sung to the tune I suggest of world famous banned book "Go The F**k to Sleep".

My Astoria coffee gets cold,
When I dream of being so bold,
I fucked up badly I'm told,
Now I've no Singapore girl to hold,
Je Lan, Just take me back.

I'm eating more junk food,
Than any other middle-age dude,
No Nasi Goreng to soften the mood,
I have never been such a prude,
Je Lan, Just take me back.

I know Wellington is a bore,
Politics puts you into a snore,
For you I showed Rodney the door,
I'm behaving good to the core,
Je Lan. Just take me back.

I left number three open just for you,
John wouldn't give up spot two,
I love you more than any man will do,
Without you I don't know who,
Je Lan. Just take me back.

In November I will be moving down here,
Without you it will be a nightmare,
My heart will be pumping out tear after tear,
If it is for you I cannot care.

Je Lan. For the love of GOD would you just bloody take him back!

Berlusconi and True Lies

About the closest thing to sport in politics is reading claims of Berlusconi scoring with women. The latest revelations are quite hilarious. A real facepalm.



In 2009 the then 73 year old boasted of rooting eight women in one night. He couldn't manage the three spare lined up for him.

In one conversation taped by investigators in early 2009, Mr Berlusconi told him: "Last night I had a queue outside my door, there were 11 of them. I only managed to do eight of them, I couldn't manage any more. You just can't get round to all of them.

"But this morning I feel great, I'm pleased with my stamina."

Absolute nonsense.

Even drug assisted on the little blue pills I fail to believe that a 73 year old man can pleasure eight twenty-something women in one night. Professional women (ie. hookers or "escorts") would rip his frail old foreskin apart if doing their job properly and leave him in a screaming heap in the bathroom crying for his Mamma. If they didn't he should have demanded his money back.

Prosecutors should put his former wife on the stand and ask what his stamina really is like. He's 73 for heavens sake. Get real. But she's being paid €3.5 million per year to shut up so unlikely to tell the truth herself.

Berlusconi's largest crime in Italy and his downfall will be setting an impossible standard for other Italian men to live up to if women actually believe at his age he can pleasure this many young women.

Eight times. Pfffftttt.

Weekend of Sporting Indulgence

Matches consumed this weekend

All Blacks v Japan
Warriors v Tigers
South Africa v Fiji
Australia v Ireland

Arsenal v Blackburn
Tottenham v Liverpool
Manchester United v Chelsea

I would have watched the Sunday rugby but had to have a rest. Yes I will be honest - hungover.

509 minutes of sport, around 8 and a half hours. I also managed to fit in watching Bridesmaids an absolutely hilarious if not slightly disgusting movie.

My potentially brilliant cricket and soccer careers were ruined by advanced University study and moreover a complete inability to show any dedication whatsoever to turn up to training. My rugby career was cut down in its prime when I realised that it wasn't safe to be a halfback or first five playing women from Ngaruawahia, Tokoroa and Huntly and there was statistically a high probability of having a different body part maimed weekly.

I did reach representative honours in both cricket and soccer and have an advanced appreciation for athletic prowess. For no other reason than at an advanced level I realised I didn't possess any and all my success was due entirely to natural co-ordination, being able to kick off my left and right foot and being good with balls.

And this weekend I was reminded once again why sport is a million times more consuming and awesome than politics ever will be for me.

Forgive me as a political blogger for finding the 2011 general election as dull as dishwater but I can't get excited about it at all.

But sports is forever.

Sonny Bill Williams

I'm sure I am not the only woman with a NZ passport to cheer him on.

I mean really....it is now ludicrous.

Play him anywhere Ted.

ipredict Update

I have been alerted to spikes in trading on my stocks here. What on earth happened to get that large spike with a volume of 100?

All I say is there's still trading?

I say GIVE IT UP!!! Not going to happen. You are wasting your money...not to mention i-Predict's dubious "no such thing as insider trading" rules.

Although to some amusement I see I am trading higher than Triple H, Hen Hater Hilary. Wonder if that was up for negotiation with Simon Power as well that he'd chuck a few bucks on her?

White Shoes A Winner

This ladies and gentlemen is the Fiat 500 Gucci, the gayest car I've seen this year. It is being launched at New York Fashion Week, which I think has already been. Forgive me for not even googling to bother.

Tonight at a shopping mall here in Hong Kong I was entertaining some visitors in non-alcoholic ways, when I got bored enough to enter a competition next to the car.

Hoping to win the scarf or the bag, as pictured here



I failed and won the WHITE DRIVING SHOES. I mean the Fiat 500 needs driving shoes? That car can't be driven, it is shunted to propel forward.



Now I know gay men who are not gay enough to wear those shoes. Charles Chauvel wouldn't even touch them sensing child sick to be preferable than fronting anywhere in these. I don't want to meet a heterosexual man who thinks these shoes are acceptable to wear. Anytime.

Hong Kong has a market for everything and there is nothing more instant than the white chick looking decidedly unhappy winning a pair of white Gucci man's shoes for the offers to start flowing in.

The website has them available at US$425 (US pricing so probably more overseas). I didn't know this at the time of course and was instantly offered the HKD equivalent of a symbiotic US$500. Fortunately I had the common sense to take it so it was a very profitable little night for just fronting up.

Still wouldn't be seen dead in that car. Makes this little number look butch and manly in comparison.

Follow The ..........Money?

There is good news and bad news for ACT out of the latest shenanigans by Simon Power with The Criminal Procedure (Reform and Modernisation) Bill

Whaleoil writes about it here
Kiwiblog writes about it here

Here is the bad news - potential flakes in the ranks during their final days.

David Farrar (formerly known as Happy Feet) has claimed the following:

"I understand there is considerable tension in ACT over this bill. If Calvert, Roy and Douglas vote for the the bill, they will be effectively crossing the floor against their party as the ACT Board has voted to oppose the bill, and it is also opposed by Leader Don Brash, former Leader Rodney Hide and Parliamentary Leader John Boscawen".

In Parliament Simon Power was confronted with the proposition that he had promised favours (post-election) in return for the support from unnamed ACT MP's. Power remained entirely calm with this accusation then promptly avoided the question. (skip to 1m 30 secs in).




I don't think the largest issue is one of list MP's or MMP as both David and Whaleoil have opined, but more asking ACT MP's to explain if they vote against the Party Principles, why they have done so.

Heather Roy and Roger Douglas for example were actively pushing and fronting the Freedom of Association Bill (VSM Bill) so really cannot now go and support something that erodes arguably a far larger right or freedom than being forced to join a Student Union for the few years a person is subject to University rule. Hilary Calvert's proposed actions don't make any sense at all. Not uncommon as I have opined in previous posts, but still needing explanation.

The good news of course is that Calvert and Roy were removed from the ACT list, Sir Roger is genuinely retiring and the new Leader Dr Brash seems made of far sterner stuff.

And the ACT Board has proven to be entirely sensible and true to Party principles.

We all await to see which way ACT MP's vote on this issue and if they go against the Party principles and the wishes of the Board, their Parliamentary Leader, their new Leader and even the old Leader.

And if they do - a statement on their reasons for doing so.

Balls Balls and More Balls

He's injured so won't be turning up to the RWC, sorry girls (and gay men).



He hasn't been good enough for a few years to consistently make even the Welsh team.



He's been hopeless off the field and booted by England for lack of discipline.

Anyway that was fun finding a strong correlation between posing with rugby balls for prostate cancer charity and not being part of the RWC.

Lets all enjoy the RWC. Even the grouchy un-Kiwis who think it is okay to criticise the All Blacks and rugby. There's six weeks of ball to ball coverage, get used to it and if the All Blacks have a bad game, get over it.

It will be far more fun than the election campaign.

Question of the Day - Tau Strikes Back

Tau Henare has had a bad week. First he was rather unceremoniously "demoted" to number 40 on the National Party list behind 2011 "diversity" candidates Jian Yang, Alfred Ngaro, worse still Bakshi and Epsom bunny Paul Goldsmith, next he had to ask this dreadful patsy question to Paula Bennett. And just in, he's been targeted in a complaint about something we've all managed on occasion - a bit of road rage.

Perhaps not in a nice working class red Audi however.

Thing is, Tau knows how to turn water into at least cask wine and on being taunted, forgets the patsy question and does what any good MP should do first - smashes up the opposition using nothing but the lines of a blogger

Tau gets to use that one til November for free it sounded so good in the House.

Call it a Treaty Settlement.

The Psychology Of The Polls

Labour’s current polling woe takes me back to the start of ACT in 1995 and 1996 when I was a student volunteer in the office spending hours stuffing envelopes in the then Chase Plaza in Auckland. I was a teenager at the time, completely disinterested in the academic masturbation offered at Auckland University so avoided it with as few appearances up at Princes Street as I could get away with. The ACT office environment at the time was the closest thing that anyone on the right interested in politics could legally get to snorting lines from beach bars. It was that much fun.

ACT first launched with a run of very expensive and horrendously wordy small-fonted advertisements created by some of the finest creatives in the country. All intent that they could launch a political party to success from their genius copywriting mingled over long lunches, brainstorming sessions and team building. All creatives who in their own minds thought their own reputations and opinion were bigger than the Party. At the time they probably were. Within months their reputations were in tatters proving that selling politics isn't quite as simple as toothpaste.

We had on paper a quite brilliant marketing team, a professional speechwriter, books published that were flying out the door and in Simon Carr one of the finest sketch writers and columnists in the entire world to back it all up. We had high profile members and promoters of the Party, a burgeoning enthusiastic membership and a large team of helpers. We had skimmed many of the most talented political organizers from the Labour era of 1984-90 who were a joy to learn from. We had a shit load of dough and as important – an icon. It was all going quite well. On paper our game was awesome.

There was constant talk at the time by Sir Roger of ACT getting 30, 40 or even 50% and becoming a major political force such that every idea he could ever come up with would be implemented. He talked of taking over the National Party who he viewed as weak and lacking in principle and ideas so Roger believed they would happily adopt his. His blind enthusiasm was infectious and his approach to MMP politics was get close to 50% and you don’t have to worry about compromise or coalitions. After all, every person at that time who supported ACT didn’t do so for any other reason really than Sir Roger. The Party itself was so new that it didn’t have policy or personalities other than Sir Roger's until Prebble took over as Leader in early 1996 and slowly moved Sir Roger from the limelight and injected his own style on proceedings.

Skip then to the first poll results when ACT was launched still under Brand Douglas. I recall them quite vividly. Not for the numbers, as rather like the pain of ones own birth, human condition lets us forget such agony, but for the process of the team huddle around the television set, political veterans nervously excited about seeing the fruits of their hours of endeavour into the only thing that matters in politics – the polls.

The polls came out and being in the room when they did was akin to that of a level 100 times worse than being stuck wearing an All Blacks jersey when the All Blacks choke out of a World Cup.

I write of this experience with no fond memories. I write of it today to show the depth of despair that the Labour Party members, supporters and volunteers will be feeling after yet another week of poll shockers. I can feel their pain.

Nowadays each Party gets the news delivered a day or two in advance. But the members, supporters and volunteers do not. They are at home with their friends and family when gleefully the 6pm news announces such or the paperboy chucks the Herald or Dom over the fence. Friends and family who start poking them for supporting a losing team and ask questions such as why do you bother? Why are you wasting your time? Bad polls are demoralizing and eat at the psyche of people who love politics and are most likely to be helping campaigns.

Forget about senior MP’s as they are used to the polling school of hard knocks. The more experienced ones stand stoic through the process. They know the polls go up and they know the polls go down. They have hides like rhinos and can manage a small poll win or a loss.

The less experienced MP’s panic and see that they could be “one’d” as list MP’s who will not make the current cut. They see that three years in Parliament has stuffed their future employment prospects and get a tad desperate. Even these panic merchants are not the issue.

I want to focus on what it is like right now to be a Labour Party volunteer, member or supporter.

Like the report I have heard of a Labour volunteer in New Plymouth visiting a staunch National household. She was told not to waste a leaflet on the house as it would go straight in the bin. The Labour deliverer said the house might as well have one as she liked Mr Key as well. That is Labour’s loyal volunteers are still sticking the hard shoe leather yards in but their hearts are with John Key or more importantly really – not with Goff.

Labour's poor unfortunate volunteers march the streets dropping pamphlets, stuffing envelopes and representing the Party to the public. For a team that is presently being thrashed. Not just by National but by the Greens. A worldwide political brand of nothing much but cutesy wrapped enviro-nutcases who spread fear in events that are highly unlikely never to happen and even if they are, their only solution is to tax us more or make us more primitive.

I have been a volunteer for a Party that is at 1% in polls so I know just how gut-spewingly demoralizing it can be. Labour will never be at 1% in the polls, but it is one of the two major parties and is hemorrhaging support currently such that right now it is their equivalent of. Labour are tribal volunteers and the best and most loyal ACT members and volunteers were former Labour members. Unlike prissy National ones who only were really interested in supporting the Party when it is perceived to be "winning", Labour are used to getting dirty and in amongst it walking the streets and Unions for support.

Labour is now stuck going into an election campaign post-Rugby World Cup with a Leader who once actually considered being the leader of a minor party from the other side of the political spectrum. A Leader doing so ineptly, that he cannot shake talk almost daily by the media of a coup. A Leader so nice but boring that his Herald profile hasn’t managed more than a run of instant fish and chip wrappers. In the many recesses recently, his MP’s get the chance to go back and have second thoughts about their time under his leadership. In the House his performance is often absent and the ebullient government owns him frequently with minimal effort. The same Labour MP’s have to return from a thrashing in Wellington on Tuesday to Thursday to motivate volunteers and supporters in their electorates. They have to all have the veneer of being happy with how things are going. It is becoming clear that the glue holding the veneers up is cracking and all that is left are gaps as large as the one between Phil Goff's front teeth.

Labour supporters, members and volunteers were promised a poll bump not a poll slump with their envy tax line-up. To be fair, I thought a CGT would have them rise in the polls as well, if for no other reason that it is an ultimate “eat the rich” sort of formula. They threw resources, time and a whole host of energy at the launch of their CGT policy. It was somewhat akin to blowing out in a game of rugby after 60 minutes and now they have 20 minutes left, their legs are all gone with the only reserve left on the bench being the slow slothy frame of Parekura Horomia who long since crushed the timber beneath him and is sitting in a pool of cold mud wondering when the KFC is being delivered. Labour seems to have nothing left to entice voters with.

Wednesday’s Fairfax poll deliciously broke down the support and found among “struggling households” Labour and National are level pegging at 39% and 38%. Worse is that among the same group a massive 42% prefer the often smarmy multi-millionaire John Key to the people’s champion Phil Goff at a ridiculously low 9.5%. And in Auckland, a city that voted a left-wing Mayor remember – National are polling a massive 65% to Labour’s 20%.

Even if Labour’s hierarchy can spin that these are just polls and the only one that matters is election day, the volunteers and loyal party supporters will soon turn themselves to the simple fact that Labour are getting killed by National and now the Greens and allegedly turning on themselves with factionalisation. They are on a losing side. And if they don't put that out of their minds it will eat away at them. The polls are killing them.

And even under MMP although it is still quite plausible, if not now highly unlikely that they may form a left-wing coalition with the Greens, Maori and Hone Harawira and I have to throw in Peter Dunne there who is untrustworthy, the damage to the Party and to what they could possibly do in government addled with smelly leftist economically illiterate tree-hugging branded marketing, is too awful to consider.

What is worse for them is that National haven’t even kicked off their campaign yet. Labour have on the other hand, played many of their cards already. They’ve spent ludicrous amounts of taxpayers' dough presenting Phil Goff as a leader of the people and Cunliffe and Parker as the economic messiahs who will take New Zealand from the abyss and into prosperity. They’ve sent their MP’s out to their own electorates to push the message to voters. And the voters seem to be hating it and voting for potential economic terrorists in the Greens instead.

That's right, Labour haven't even faced National in a real campaign yet. Phil Goff and his mates have only been taking hits from two not-so-humble bloggers. The main hitter, Whaleoil who runs his whole operation with a cellphone, laptop, Skype, ginger beer and energy bars all from a warehouse in Manukau, appears to be a one-man shit-stirring opposition to Labour all on his own.



The greatest thing Phil Goff could do right now is order either a hit on Whaleoil or have Shearer call in his mercenary mates for a kidnapping. A cheaper option may be to entice Whaleoil back on to anti-depressants. He could barely get out of bed then.

When ACT was failing to gain polling traction and support back in late 1995/early 1996 despite the amount of money and effort tipped into it, many younger volunteers discussed too loudly in front of a senior party member that perhaps we needed to come to the realization that Roger wasn’t as popular and charismatic with the public as he told us he was and it was time for someone else to give it a go. We were advanced at with glares and told to go stuff more envelopes like good little students. Fortunately Richard Prebble decided he would like to lead the Party in early 1996 and once Douglas was moved to the background, turned things around. With Prebble came new emphasis and energy and a broader appeal away from screeds of Douglas-penned esoteric economic policy to issues that matter to more simple folk delivered by a man who had some firepower and wit in doing so.

Perhaps the Labour Party volunteers need a group of similar age and lack of fear to utter these words about Goff to MP’s they are slaving to help to save their Party from oblivion.

Labour have tried everything already in this campaign and have done pretty much everything they could have in the circumstances. It is just not working. Their brand is so badly damaged by having a lame uncharismatic Leader that really now the responsibility can only fall on him. The election is turning into a Presidential style of Key v Goff and Key has taken no body blows at all from Goff. Goff has not landed one single hit on Key that has hurt him.

Goff is now even beginning to concede and talk like a loser. It is time for him to either start talking like a winner and get a dose of instant charisma or give it up and let someone who believes the Party can actually win, take charge.

I don't think Labour can actually afford to wait until November to make this change. Leadership change when the ball starts a rolling is inevitable and Labour just needs one man or woman with the balls to step up and roll it the last steps.

Of course no one in the Labour Party has the courage to say this so nothing will happen.

The only (former) member with that required courage is currently on a plane to Kabul.

Tokenism and Party Lists

Another list is announced from the centre-right and more wallowing from opposition parties about the lack of representation of women and minorities on the National Party list this time.

Let me share some reality with the critics. Female voters don't necessarily vote for other women or panty-waister pinko parties as of right.

John Key (a male) is the most trusted political leader to mind your children.

John Key a hit with female voters

Truth is that women will vote for men. It seems especially they will vote for John Key. They love him.

The Opposition are clutching at straws criticising National for fewer women than statistically represented in New Zealand. Who cares? They are WINNING. Women are voting National in droves anyway.

Even poor people are still voting National, 38% of them, which is higher than any poll Labour has currently:



Painting National as some kind of blokefest is ignorant of the fact that a Party list should represent the party's membership rather than New Zealand as a whole. MMP allows minorities representation through the list vote. Whaleoil has run a series where he's clearly trying to soften his image and curry favour with the National Party cake bakers. I don't quite see his point other than he feels talentless men are on lists ahead of equally as potentially talentless women. Not exactly aspirational.

More reality with National is that they are going to win so many list seats this election they will not know what to do with them. Everyone above Jackie Blue at 46% should feel comfortable about their spot, Calder, Gilmore and Quinn need not dust off their CV's quite yet either. And David Farrar sheds more light on the list with his analysis:

In terms of caucus diversity, and assuming a 48% party vote, National would have 15 female MPs out of 60, or 25%. A lot better than the old days when you could count the number on one hand, but not as high as it could be. The percentage women would increase to 28% if National gets 52%.

However several women have moved up the list significantly – Paula, Amy and Nikki have all had huge promotions as has Junior Whip Jo Goodhew (and all on merit in my opinion).

In terms of ethnicity, at 48% National would have seven MPs of Maori decent which would be 12% of Caucus. This is equal to the adult Maori population, which is 12% of the country. There would also be two Pacific MPs and three Asian MPs.

In terms of age distribution, 49% of the caucus would be in their 40s or younger and 51% in their 50s or 60s.

That's right, do you really think Crusher Collins needs and wants diversification and tokenism to be #7 on the list? In my view she should be #3 on the list ahead of the plodders #3-6 above her, but in reality she will receive whatever Cabinet postings she wants. National's list really is ordered not individually but in specific groupings. A good example are #58-62, a group here of candidates likely to win their safe(r) seats with limited track records in the Party. David as normal, has best analysis on the rankings and what they represent in his view. Which is likely to be as close to reality as any commentator will get.

Any attempts to smear National or ACT lists as somehow less valid than others because of their apparent lack of diversification, is short-sighted and doesn't actually take into account each natural voting demographic.

I couldn't care less as to the gender or ethnicity of ACT's top 10 candidates and have fought against tokenism in those positions. I think in general they got the personnel reasonably right except for one slot, the ordering was slightly different to what I voted on my members poll, however pretty close.

Smearing centre-right lists also without seeing the lack of talent in the top ten or even twenty of the Greens, Mana, Maori and Labour is also a blatant attempt to analyse politicians on the colour of their skin, gender or how old they are rather than any objective test of merit.

Will a journalist for example ask the burning question of why there are no non-Maori persons on the Maori Party list? Or for that matter, high achieving suit wearers on the Mana Party list? And an under-representation of white males or professional females on both?

ACT may have no Maori candidates of any note at all but I will bet the Maori Party has no non-Maori persons on their top 20 either. Yet the Maori Party can go totally unquestioned as to their total lack of diversity.

At the end of the day it is up to the voters to decide whether a Party is representative of them.

And right now in the polls, Labour and the left don't have any grounds for criticising National at all.