"Mum and Dad" shareholders again....which of course is code for a group in finance that could be termed "white middle class bloody idiots who only have wealth through accident". Those who have money but not enough brains to necessarily keep it.
Why on earth does a regulator have to run around nappy changing you to ensure you don't get ripped off?
"I get really angry at this sort of immoral behaviour," said one investor in an email to the Herald.
Another said: "These are ... sharks preying on the elderly or confused.",
The Securities Commission said it was not illegal to make an unsolicited offer to buy investments for less than the market value.
This bloke simply offers you a lower than market price for your shares. If that is predatory then the entire free market must be an angry gorilla. If you don't want to sell them then DON'T!!! Why is it "immoral" to make an offer?
Why is it that the same "elderly and confused" people can tell a stranger at their door to naff off when they are offered half a million for a million dollar property, but in New Zealand it is considered predatory to bid for shares at lower than market value?
It is easy to see the current NZX value for your shares. Open up the damn paper. If you are too dumb or lazy to do that then you shouldn't be owning shares in the first place. If you are too confused or elderly then chances are you have forgotten you own the shares in the first place.
There's plenty of people in New Zealand too poor to own shares. Running around protecting white middle-class idiots who have accidentally received wealth with not enough brains to actually keep it, is not and never should be a priority of the State.
Standard monkey cage. Nothing to keep him amused at all.
Two black bears in tiny enclosure full of concrete.
Raw marks on the little monkey as he puts his hand through the cage to get food that the punters buy for 20 baht.
Holes in the cage.
Standard snake enclosure before they are thrown around on a stage with 100 baht notes the ring announcer basically threatens you to give tips to at the end of the show. Got a very large "combine sex and travel" from myself.
Soft shell turtle in basically a tub smaller than a standard bath.
Yum yum
Fine bird in cage with concrete and nothing else
Black bear sits and waits for his nuts bought from dodgy Indian vendor who places them in your hand for you to feed the bear then tries to charge you 20 baht. He received a "combine sex with travel" from myself when I realised what he was up to.
Fine tiger beast.
Readers of this blog will know that instead of visiting shit boring museums, churches and places of no significance in my life because you can read about them in books and on the net, when travelling with a spare day I visit zoos. I like them because most exist for the purpose of educating everyone about animals. And often it is the only chance most of us will ever get to see most animals. Because of the often reasonably exotic nature of the countries I travel to, I also get to see some pretty great zoos.
Today while in Bangkok however I had probably the worst travel experience of my zoo-visiting life at the Thonburi Snake Farm.
No tree-hugging animal activist even I was in two minds whether to go buy some bolt cutters and free the animals from the misery of this place which typifies perfectly why those born into abject poverty should NEVER be able to own exotic animals. I am against poor people owning any sort of animal, if they cannot afford to look after themselves then what kind of stupid society lets them own animals?
The answer to the problem of endangered animals is to let people rich enough everywhere to be licensed to farm them. For example, who wouldn't want to own a tiger if they had a farm large enough to have one on? Tigers are very cool. Way cooler than a horse. Who wouldn't want a large turtle if they had a water feature large enough, or a snake?
The snake farm contains some of the most beautiful beasts of mother nature. Tucked away in the corner is even a Bengal Tiger, the other corner two black bears. Various monkeys, birds, turtles and even deer. Well deer in an enclosure the size of a NZ backyard.
The photos on my Blackberry will never do this place justice for how much a disgrace it is. I don't care about Thailand's animal rights laws (which appear non-existent). The zoo should be closed and the animals relocated to lusher pastures.
If poverty is the reason this place cannot clean up its act then the answer is easy, take the animals and send them to wealthier countries who look after animals better. At Thonburi even cats and dogs were treated better than the animals in the cages, as strays walked freely around no doubt with all kinds of diseases. Watching a cat stare down the bird cage was a particular highlight. Not.
Compare it to say the Steve Irwin Zoo where all the staff are proud of the zoo, love their work and the animals and it is more of a disgrace. No grass, no trees and with Bangkok's searing heat, very little shade or fresh water. The food seems to be stripped out of the cages so farangs can buy 20 baht of animal feed to give to these animals, many seem bored out of their minds and wilting in the heat.
I am not in favour of boycotting this zoo, I think the more people who visit Bangkok and go and see it the better. Then those people can write about it on searchable sites such as blogs and to animal welfare agencies.
I guess they won't do anything about it as namby pamby as they are "poor" countries have different standards of acceptable treatment of animals than wealthier nations.
Shame that unlike humans, animals don't get a choice.
These regulatory authorities have a real issue with keeping to time limits. Not only was the Securities Commission meant to have decided whether to charge Mark Hotchin by Christmas the SFO was meant to have worked out whether to charge Hubbard.
Adam Feeley big noted he would have worked out by Christmas as to charge Old Man Hubbard. He's got one more day. Either put up or shut up. Decide whether Hubbard ran the largest Ponzi scheme in New Zealand since the invention of the Welfare State or SCF was yet another victim of simply poor decisions involving property. There is a third option of course, Hubbard was incompetent and not fraudulent.
The Nations financial journos all appear to be on holiday without their laptops. Fortunately Bernard Hickey is still at work and I am poolside in a third world country with first world wireless connected to my iPad, awaiting Feeley's announcement to be made by tomorrow.
This release would have been written by a team of bookish academic conservative lawyers. Because only a team of bookish academic conservative lawyers in a room participating in a square-dance some inter-dependent thinkers term a "meeting" could they come up with something so limp-dick worried about superfluous matters such as letting us all know what they really think.
I am sick of reading flowery PR political and business releases from New Zealand that don't express thoughts and facts in an upfront manner. So I have re-written the Hotchin/Hanover Release for them to say what they really wanted was required.
CK Christmas Message - Parents Leave Those Kids Alone!!
The NZ school year ends in December. Most of the rest of the world keeps chugging on however with a split year. I feel the need for a timely reminder about tagging your child for greatness before they've really achieved a single thing.
The pushy parent is a horrible beast. I've observed thousands through gritted teeth. Some of the worst are in HK. You know the sort "well my xxxxx is sitting exams to get into xxxx, he's very good at maths you know", "well my xxxx will be an All Black", "well I have to move my xxxx because you know the class he's in at the moment just isn't extending him academically". Oh vomit. It happens in Auckland I know, as even the provinces.
Nowadays it seems the more cut backs parents have had to make to their own materialistic lifestyles, the more it seems parents have transferred that energy to bragging how smart or gifted their children are.
Just STOP!!
The worst aspect of parental boasting is that the child starts to actually believe the hype. This is the danger. Because there's a reason for the word "average". Most children are average. They will always be average. They will all lead average reasonable happy lives. If you live in a "nice" part of town then you will only be surrounded by above-average sorts, therefore you may suffer from thoughts that your child is below average. They won't be.
A well-adjusted intelligent child knows they are good. They don't have to be told or overhear it at dinner parties. They know how smart children are whom they are competing against Nationally or even Internationally. Leave them the hell alone. I recall my mother being excited at the prospect of myself entering the Australian Maths Competition. Despite being an A student right through school in maths and then statistics and calculus there's no way I was going to win the competition. I told her so to dampen these silly expectations of mathematical greatness. I think I was thirteen at the time, it was my initiation in managing silly parental expectations.
A child has enough to worry about without an adult telling them they can do better than they are potentially able to do. Examples that I've seen;
- parents bragging their 9 yo child will be a future All Black and talent scouts have already shown an interest.
That child is a member of the HK Football club and would be run over and around by any random barefoot child in a village in Apia. Including the girls. I've seen the child play rugby, and the others at the HKFC. There are no talent scouts.
- parents who make a 3 yo study 7 days a week with only 20 minutes a night of TV.
The child is 3. Enough said. Bordering on child abuse.
- parents with a child who is 15 yo and 6 foot tall. Parents are bragging the NBA scouts are already after him.
The parents are in Hong Kong. The supposed talent scouts were feeder scouts to Chinese basketball. The child isn't even in the top team in HK for his age. He's tall but can't shoot to save himself.
- parents who got excited with a child who at 17yo got some A grades.
The child wishes to study a BA in History, the parents made the child apply to Med School. The child won't get into Med School.
Situations like this are not uncommon to the middle and upper classes and incomed and I know when in the parenting zone its perfectly normal aspirational behaviour to be encouraged wrapped in positivity. To those of us outside that zone, its just plain weird.
If your child is below average or has a genuine learning disability I can see the need to motivate and assist that child from a low base. Those children may need special schools or closer tuition. Put them to one side.
But if your child is average there's no need for excuses. Diagnosing your own child among your social set with dyslexia, bipolar, ADHD or even autism just looks sad. The child may just not be academic. Just say it, loudly They may be very good at something else. Or not. They may be a teenage boy, in which case many suffer from abject laziness. Eventually they grow out of it.
If your child is excelling then I have news that you will not want to hear - they will excel with or without you. Once they are doing well, your input won't matter in the slightest. To truly have earned their success they are better off being left to their own devices.
They have do it all themselves one day when they hit University anyway so just cut that string, stop bragging to your friends about their success and let them succeed or fail all on their own.
Most of the issue is with parents who don't want to let go of their children, who wish to live academically vicariously through their child's success.
On the 29th November the SFO let out the worst kept secret in town. They have been investigating Hanover Finance. This investigation has been on-going for three months apparently.
The downfall of Hanover has been done to death by repeaters, reporters and commentators. I had a good slash at their failure as well here but it must be time a year on to bring in Allied and their complaint to the SFO. My emphasis in bold below. According to the SFO on their own website.
"Mr Feeley said that having considered the Securities Commission report and the complaints of a number of persons, including Allied Farmers, the efforts of the SFO investigation was best focused on several key areas relating to the payment of dividends and other transactions occurring immediately prior to announcement of the moratorium proposal, and debt restructuring involving the transfer of assets to Allied Farmers.
We will be interviewing a small group of key Hanover staff and professional advisers to seek explanations of these transactions.
Mr Feeley said that the even with a tightly focused investigation, the scale of the task was such that the SFO would be engaging significant external resources.
In addition to a large internal team, and collaboration with the Securities Commission and Registrar of Companies, we have engaged a number of New Zealand’s senior legal counsel and leading forensic accountants to assist us.”
The investigation has been elevated to a Part 2 where:
“the Director has reasonable grounds to believe that an offence involving serious or complex fraud may have been committed…”
Again leave aside the history of Hanover for one moment, given that you could put any 12 men and women on a jury for anything including a murder of the most vicious gang member in the country right now and Hotchin and Watson would be found guilty of it, such is the public bias that the media, industry and commentators have built against them.
I wish to look at the conduct of Allied. This apparent “victim” of a serious fraud.
Allied as a “victim”of fraud
From Feeley's release above what we now know for sure about the SFO investigation pending is that:
- Allied are a complainant against Hanover - They are looking specifically at dividends and transactions before the moratorium proposal - They are also looking the transfer of assets to Allied - This investigation will take “significant” taxpayer resources, including external experts.
My issue with Allied complaining about Hanover's conduct is quite simple. The taxpayer is now paying big money for investigating aspects of the transaction that Allied should have undertaken before they conducted the transaction in the first place with Hanover.
I liken it to a house purchaser buying a leaky home, knowing it was leaky as the media and financial community had reported it extensively, buying “as is”, using their own experts in conducting a full inspection on the house so they knew precisely what was wrong with it when they paid a reduced purchase price – and now running to the authorities such that the taxpayer has to assist them in prosecuting the seller of the leaky home that everyone knew leaked.
That is analogous to Allied making a complaint against Hanover for fraud. It is a good analogy as Hanover was a property finance company. It is even better as Hanover investors voted for the proposal as did Allied shareholders.
Jane Diplock, in a rare move went to the bother of putting out a "cheat sheet" if you like about the Allied/Hanover transaction. Most telling is this answer to her own set of questions.
If the proposal goes ahead and you hold on to your shares then you are taking a risk on the ability of the Allied board and management to get more value out of Hanover's assets than Hanover managed to. The Allied board believes that it can do this.
Allied are in plain language, failing to do this and need someone to pin it on.
Hanover turned tits-up because they took funds, onlent to persons who didn’t pay them back and to companies that failed or are slow paying. Simple. So who are the villains in the piece? Those who set up the financing or really those who made promises to pay and then couldn’t so didn’t, sending the finance company to the wall in the first place.
Worldwide in the past few years, trillions of dollars of assets have been written-down, written-off and binned. Thousands of hedge funds are now worth zero, ditto share certificates. Most without any fraud at all and all due to the GFC (global financial crisis). In New Zealand those who borrowed money to build houses for New Zealanders to buy, New Zealanders all with the hit and hope strategy of making a tax-free capital gain, went to the wall. Property developer scalps are littered all over New Zealand unable to repay the finance companies who lent them money to buy properties that New Zealanders were meant to buy. On figures available New Zealanders were going to keep buying. So where is the fraud in any of this? A large market tank of commercial and second property (beach property) seems the simplest explanation looking at the Allied assets taken from Hanover. Failing at business when you have vulture scalped the "best" assets of a failed company doesn't necessitate a fraud inquiry.
When things are going well, no one notices what is happening in a company because no one has to my knowledge, ever complained to the SFO about making too much money have they? When there is an economic downturn people look for someone to blame for their money being lost.
Dividends
Some of the lending and other transactions in Hanover were inter-related. At one time when the company had assets on the book of $1,025b, only $199m or around a fifth of that was inter-related and at some point this increased to around a third. Some of this was to Hotchin and/or Watson’s own companies but ultimately their success or failure depends on demand for their developments and profitability of their businesses. If property was sold they would have succeeded. It didn’t, they lost money and everyone else did as well.
Much is made of this inter-related lending but it was a fraction of the issue. As are the dividends paid. Related party transactions
$45.5 million was paid in Hanover’s last gasp as dividends. Much has been made of this.
Even if we took that $45 million and crudely spread it like a Socialist over the 17,000 “investors” each would receive the paltry sum of $2,647.06.
Even in the life of one of those foolish old-aged pensioners paraded as victims of this alleged “fraud” that sort of sum isn’t going to make a flying bit of difference to that person eating or not is it? No one has listened to the cry at the time from Hanover that all this money according to reports was all tipped back into the company plus another $25 million. Don’t want to know do they? It is far easier to report the villainous side of the story.
Bernard Hickey gasped at $5 million paid to Hotchin and Watson and demanded it be paid to the “investors”. Spread over the 17,000 “victims” that’s $294.12. Or less once you took administration costs off distribution to 17,000 parties. Allied haven't paid it and Hanover are now taking them to court.
Is this all fraud? To go to top tier legal firms and get their precise expert legal advice on point of when you can declare a dividend and ensuring that to the letter of the law at the time its capital adequacy ratios are maintained? Hardly. It is prudent business practice to ask for expert opinion and as long as Hanover directors did this, I cannot see the problem.
Anytime a dividend was proposed I cannot imagine Hanover not going to its lawyer and accountants and asking for specific advice on the transaction. Commentators know this and have therefore skipped over the point and whinged that legally they may have been able to do it but what about the morality of it? When attackers cling to morality in justification for publicly hanging a corporate, you know the attacker has lost. A Nation's laws at the time are its morality.
There is no room for morality at all in an argument where you wish to have someone charged with a criminal fraud which is what the investigation has moved on to. At best the dividend issue is a civil legal matter and again – not something that the SFO should be spending taxpayer money investigating.
I took it upon myself to contact Roger Wallis at Chapman Tripp with this question and specifically a couple of others as I advised him I was going to write a blog post regarding, asking him to release a copy of the specific legal opinion on which these dividends were paid. With the SFO investigation entering Part 2, he’s wrapped up tighter than a nun’s **** presently by law and so emailed back promptly with:
“Unfortunately I am not going to be able to comment at all at this stage”.
The “unfortunately” is careful legal speak for – “this is a load of **** but we cannot defend ourselves now as we are under investigation”. A common position and a legal strategy in tying your opponents up while you continue to publicly pound the life out of them in the court of public opinion.
As reported in a Fran O’Sullivan column, one of many she has crafted on the issue of Hanover and Hotchin, Wallis has in the past eventually answered concerns from an investor in a reasonably direct fashion so appears to wanting to answer even if no one is actually listening to and taking on board his points because again no one wants to listen to the opposing arguments. They aren't sexy and are often difficult to comprehend. Remember these detractors in many instances threw their life-savings at Richard Long. They are not necessarily the sharpest knives in the drawer and at this point are so desperate they will support Hotchin and Watson being attacked for anything in a form of mass Hanover Utu.
Again the dividend issue is little stuff in the scheme of things and based on the classic New Zealand “Kiwi” attitude that because someone is richer than you are, then they should bare the load of any loss in a commercial venture, because, you know, they are richer than you, drive a nicer car and can afford it.
It is not something that the SFO needs to be dealing with and if Allied are a part of that as a complaint then they have no grounds to be as it is none of their business how dividends were paid prior to their interest in the company a they should have known what was happening. For reasons I bring up later.
Dividends and inter-related lending didn’t bring down Hanover. Lending to those who invested in property did. You know, those developments that one day you as a New Zealander may be living in, trying to buy low and sell high, just like everyone else…driving demand for more development, rental properties and more requirements to have second tier lending when the banks say no. Those developments that worldwide have suffered slumps and wiped off asset portfolios everywhere. It is not a New Zealand unique problem.
Debt Restructuring and Allied Transfer
This is where Allied’s complaint would most likely have centred.
Rob Alloway has previously accused Hanover of forgiving substantial loans in the weeks before Allied bought the Hanover portfolio for $396.2 million.
The comments from the want-away Managing Director Rob Alloway in this article from the NBR are quite astounding when read in conjunction with his comments of around a year ago when he was selling the deal:
“We were quite shocked at some of the activity that took place prior to our acquisition of the assets and immediately moved to alert regulators.
We feel that the actions of the Hanover Board and management while under moratorium have had a significant impact on the value of the assets, and investors deserve to have this investigated.
These comments indicate that Allied’s due diligence was either non-existent or failed and there were no or hopeless warranties relating to material transactions. Remember again Allied weren’t acquiring a blue chip company with a brilliant track-record of profitability, they were buying one of the most written about, vilified companies in New Zealand’s recent history. Hanover was already in a DRP (debt restructure plan) and failing to make payments. The writing was on the wall.
Again, Allied weren’t just buying a leaky home, but a leaky home with signs outside with proof of the leaks. Some have called Hanover a “lame elephant”. That’s the understatement of the century, Hanover was a three legged elephant that was being asked to carry sumo wrestlers round the jungle. Everyone knew it, so what made Allied think they could either a) turn it around or b) that they knew something everyone else didn’t about how they could grow a fourth leg for the elephant.
Most journalists and business commentators sat on the fence regarding Allied’s proposal for Hanover investors. Financial advisors ducked for cover under their furniture knowing they'd made such a porkie with Hanover in the first instance and referring their clients into other finance companies. Even investor friendly-Bruce Sheppard threw his rag at “investors” who wanted advice. Leaving them to the hounds on the basis of being stupid in the past. But Grant Samuel went as far as stating Hanover investors had no choice but to accept the offer.
Business involves managing risk and here a thorough due diligence and agreements with massive warranties on sale should have been executed by Allied.
In Allied's own recent 2010 report they confidently discuss due diligence head on:
Allied Farmers has been the centre of much criticism around its due diligence processes surrounding the acquisition however, it appears to have been conveniently forgotten that these same assets were audited, overseen by an independent Trustee and the subject of review by other third parties on numerous occasions, with a valuation not too dissimilar to the attributed acquisition value of $396.2 million.
Really? In other words if this is really the case, Allied should be trotting off to court and suing those parties listed above who looked at the numbers. The ones they hired that is. They must have "conveniently forgotten" that when crying off to the Regulator.
The SFO Complaint
Nowadays litigation is so expensive and elongated to get an outcome that one way of effectively burying your competitor for free and attempting to absolve yourself publicly of any fiscal responsibility is to accuse them of fraud. Fraud is nasty as it is criminal and takes a very long time to investigate. Any major loss of value on what the Allied deal was executed for was always going to result in a fraud allegation because Allied shareholders were going to run at their own Board for recommending the deal. And like little puppets for fiscal losers, the SFO have run with Allied’s complaint rather than telling them to go to other avenues they should have gone to. And paid for themselves.
The SFO may throw charges everywhere but they will have a major job in convicting anyone in Hanover on the dividends and inter-related loans as it would all have been driven under extensive legal advice from the likes of Wallis and big four firms. These opinions and advice are extensive documentation. Allied would have received their own legal opinions. Even Jane Diplock recently threw her hands up when attacked regarding finance companies and bit back with :
"Many of the prospectuses had been extremely well drafted by the best lawyers in the country, Diplock said".
Indeed, and if the prospectuses and the ensuing activity and decisions of the finance company followed the law as drafted, there is little Diplock could do because what was happening was perfectly legal. Losing other people's money in poor market conditions is not a crime, else most NZX company directors would at some point be serving a stint in the Big House.
No one seems too concerned that behind every prospectus distributed were financial advisors who charged clients to manage their financial affairs but were acting predominantly as retail salesmen and women. Financial advisors who necessarily didn't read prospectuses and a load of people too darn cheap to get another lawyer to pick apart the prospectuses and find out what most of these finance companies were actually investing in. A general problem of most "unsophisticated" "Ma and Pa" investors - their advisors are either idiots or on the take themselves. They don't seek pricier independent legal counsel so in my view get what they deserve if they sign up to often 30 or 40 page prospectuses without understanding what they sign up to. You can't legislate to protect that and neither should you.
In November 2009, this man, Rob Alloway sold the Allied/Hanover deal of $400m of assets (now worth $94.3 million and sliding) to Hanover investors with this pitch:
"This isn't some rumpety transaction to create some paper company. We have the vision to create a solid rural services and financial services company with plenty of equity and very little debt," he said. "We want to grow a business which is high-performing and delivers equity growth and earnings growth in the future."
Mr "Rumpety Transaction" resigned as MD in September 2010, but has been re-instated for six months. Under what circumstances is anyone's guess.
John "Bolter" Loughlin had already scurried from Allied Finance Unit as Chairman in September 2010. Tradition says that Chairmen stay for the benefit of shareholders. Obviously he saw Allied had stuffed up enough that the money wasn't worth the effort and so he fell on his sword.
In their press release of 30 June 2010, Allied stated they wouldn't pay Hanover the $5 million and listed some reasons why Hanover breached agreements:
• to administer its assets in the usual and ordinary course; • to consult with Allied Farmers in relation to proposed transactions; • not to dispose of any Finance Asset without the prior consent of Allied Farmers; • not to terminate or adversely vary or fail to enforce the terms of any Hanover contract assumed by Allied Farmers; • not to enter into any abnormal or unusual transaction which adversely affected its assets; and • to apply cash generated after 30 June 2009 only to specified costs or pay it to Allied Farmers.
Hanover is now going the correct route - to the courts to battle this one out.
This release does however point to the sort of issues Allied must have alleged of Hanover to stick in an SFO complaint. Civil matters, dealt with in the courts.
Allied also released this to their shareholders on 20 November 2009 representing to their shareholders the following:
Extensive due diligence was carried out by Allied and its advisors to arrive at the agreed net asset value figure of $396.2 million. However, an adjustment mechanism formula will be applied in June 2011 which will adjust the original share allocation formula/ratio between existing shareholders and the incoming Hanover and United investors. This is to ensure fairness should the amount recovered from the assets be less than the amount we will pay for them. To achieve this, existing shareholders will be issued Bonus Securities. A review of recoveries received up to June 2011 will be made, together with a reassessment of the value of any finance assets we still hold and, if that total is less than $396.2 million, the Bonus Securities will result in your holdings of ordinary shares being increased so as to restore the appropriate relativity. If the total is greater than $396.2 million, no shareholding change occurs and all shareholders will benefit from that uplift.
The Allied team sold the transaction so well to their shareholders that at the Special Meeting of Shareholders on 8 December 2009, almost 90% of Allied shareholders approved the Hanover deal.
What we can see is that Allied negotiated in a commercial "adjustment mechanism formula" in June 2011. This formula is discussed on page 14 of Allied's Annual Report:
The Exchange Agreement provides that a “Shortfall” will exist if in respect of the period up to 30 June 2011 the total amount achieved from the realisation of any finance assets and the total value of any such assets still held by Allied Farmers Investments Limited or any on-transferee of such assets (in each case, determined on a consistent basis with the price allocated under the Exchange Agreement) is less than the $396.2 million price attributed to those assets under the Exchange Agreement. This calculation will be made as part of the audit of the Company’s financial results for the period ended 30 June 2011 and is expected to be announced at the time the audited financial statements are released.
So due to their negotiated assessment of the downside risk for their own shareholders using the adjustment mechanism formula, Allied therefore do not necessarily need to worry so much about the valuations or Hanover's prior conduct, they are really just using the SFO to counter-balance criticism of their own shortcomings. Their MD resigned and came back, their Chairman walked out on the shareholders and now they pawn Hanover off on the SFO. Where is their responsibility in this? The Directors who backed the deal and sold it to the shareholders? The shareholders themselves for buying that proverbial "leaky home"?
New Zealand however doesn't seem to be a country for responsible informed and educated investing, people want upside reward without accepting and manning-up to downside risk. It doesn't want to be a country where loses are taken as part of business. It doesn't want to be a country where questions can be asked really if some people are just too stupid to have money to be allowed to choose their own investments.
It's easier to put your complaint on the grand pile at the SFO and have those you hate subjected to a criminal investigation.
Why The World Will Be Good When China Runs It - Again
I tried a series earlier in the year about the brilliant Letters to the Editor in the local paper here in HK The South China Morning Post.
It was like they were watching my praise of their hardline letters, and the brilliance stopped. Until yesterday when this beauty was published arguing in favour of incineration.
Which leads me also to this piece by Roger Kerr on "Peak Coal". Sadly Roger seems to suffer from random bouts of Kiwiblogitis whereby he cut and pastes too much. Which is sad in Roger's case as he has a close to genius IQ so I wonder why he has to quote other people so much.
Gareth Morgan can write all he likes about capital gains tax but Hong Kong has gone slightly loopy and brought in a "special stamp duty" called SSD, to apply to the utterly crazy residential property market.
It has also tinkered through the HKMA with the LTV ratio which measures maximum loan to value, in other words how much banks can lend on property valuations.
I agree with the government that Hong Kong currently is "m" for mental. Most blame the Chinese "hot" money but lending and deposit interest rates of next to nothing brought on by the HK dollar peg to the USA are I think more the issue with most of the market.
Think in New Zealand of the effect on property if interest rates were say 2% floating, liquidity was reasonably easy to come by and rents were say double what they are now. Which is precisely the HK residential property market. It is stuck with USA pegging with superior economic conditions to the USA.
As an example, I used to live in a shoebox in the expat enclave of Mid-levels, very close to the centre of town. The rent asked for that flat has increased 25% just in the last year. That was after a previous increase the eighteen months before.
If you wish to live in your own home (well shoebox), it makes far more sense to go and buy a flat presently than rent. So people are obliging and prices keep rising. The downside is that the HK property bubble does burst as it has historically and when it does that million dollar flat you bought can have its equity in some cases more than halved with the hit of the pin.
SSD is something that Gareth Morgan can only have a wet dream over. Details are here.
It's like a CGT on methamphetamine. The buyer AND the seller are jointly liable. The SSD applies to residential and not commercial property, such is its specific targeting.*
It is a punitive duty on the total sale price of your property. It is dutied now on all sales and if your property is sold within 2 years of purchase a sliding scale applies on the higher of the consideration or the market value:
15% for property held for six months or less 10% for property held six to twelve months 5% for property held twelve to twenty-four months
And get this, even if you don't make a profit on the sale - you are still liable for the duty.
Here's an example from the website:
Mr Chau acquired a residential property at $6M on 18 January 2011 and sold it on 20 May 2011 (i.e. within 6 months) for $6.5M.
SSD is payable as the subject residential property was acquired after 20 November 2010 and sold within 24 months from the date of acquisition. As Mr Chau sold the subject property within 6 months from the date of acquisition, the SSD rate is 15%. The amount of SSD payable for the property transaction dated 20 May 2011 is $975,000, i.e. 15% of $6.5M.
So on the 500k gain he is paying 975k SSD as the duty is on the price, not the gain. Gareth Morgan will need a pill for his excitement after reading that.
This example shows the insanity of the duty from a practical level. Mr Chau is punished for selling the property within two years with primafacie a 475k loss (he will have to negotiate with the buyer on the SSD). It is also a good example of the brilliance of the policy in terms of effectiveness, as it will cut out most sales of higher value property. To sell within especially six months you would have to be making massive gains.
The calculation you now have to make is whether your gain will be greater than 15, 10 or 5% of the expected sale price.
Then you have this example which covers the common position where you buy residential property through a company:
A Ltd. acquired a residential property at $3M on 20 December 2010 and sold it for $2.8M on 13 July 2011.
SSD is payable as the subject residential property was acquired after 20 November 2010 and sold within 24 months from the date of acquisition. As A Ltd. sold the subject property more than 6 months but within 12 months from the date of acquisition, the SSD rate is 10%. The amount of SSD payable for the property transaction dated 13 July 2011 is $280,000, i.e. 10% of $2.8M.
In this example A Limited has lost $200k on sale yet has to also pay $280k to the government in SSD.
The problem with the policy is that in conjunction with very low interest rates, people will now just keep their property two years and in two years time to the day we will see the bubble back. That is, if interest rates are kept constantly low as they have been for the past two years. People will hold than transact which like wage or price freezes, causes delayed chaos and mayhem. The only sellers currently will be those to whom the policy doesn't apply - having purchased before the November 20th kick-in day. Thus creating potentially two markets for property in Hong Kong.
In the meantime if there are any shocks such as the Asian crisis, government will have to abandon these measures as people will need liquidity but in many cases like that above of Mr Chau may wipe out a good portion of his equity if he has borrowed.
I would be interested to hear Gareth use it in one of his policy design columns analysed from an economists perspective. I know his staff read the blog so chop chop, forward to the Boss.
The net effect in Hong Kong will be I guess that many people in the short term simply take their loot and stick it on the gambling wheel that is the stockmarket.
Which keeps the Gareth Morgan's of this world very happy.
* There is of course a way to structure around the stamp duty on residential property. First person to comment in with the correct answer gets a virtual chocolate fish.
